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Setup Odds: how insider buying setups did 90 days later

We measured 16,899 insider buying events since 2020, from SEC filings, and checked each stock against the S&P 500 over the next 90 days. When insiders buy today, we show how past setups like it turned out.

New: the Insider Gauge. How broad insider buying is across the whole market this week (73/100), and hidden facts we found in these buys. See the Gauge →

No setup reliably beat the market. The highest beat rate among the setups we tested: 3+ insiders buying, no CEO or CFO, stock down 20%+ in 3 months, 138 of 278 cases (50%) vs. 46% for all insider buys, with a median of -0.2% vs. the S&P 500. That is still about a coin flip.

Is insider buying a coin flip?

Pick the traits of an insider buy and see how past cases like it did over 90 days.

Insider buys measured16,899
Beat the S&P 50046%7,736 of 16,899
Median vs. S&P 500-1.6%the typical buy
Average vs. S&P 500+0.5%pulled by big winners and losers
Insiders buying
CEO or CFO among them?
Stock in the 3 months before

50 of 100

past setups like this beat the S&P 500 over 90 days (all insider buys: 46)

Outcome Cloud: every past buy, one dot each

Above the line, the stock beat the S&P 500 over the next 90 days; below, it lagged. One percentage hides the spread. This shows it: a few big winners, many small misses.

46% beat the S&P 500 7,736 of 16,899 · median -1.6% vs. the index
Beat the S&P 500 ↑Lagged ↓-50%-25%+0%+25%+50%2020202120222023202420252026CZR 2024-05-07: -9% vs S&P +0%LILA 2024-03-28: +33% vs S&P +5%CPF 2020-03-03: -34% vs S&P +2%RILY 2023-12-19: -16% vs S&P +8%GAM 2022-09-26: +11% vs S&P +6%ALRS 2022-06-23: -1% vs S&P +0%ACNB 2022-06-30: +6% vs S&P -1%RRBI 2021-08-05: +1% vs S&P +6%MGY 2025-03-05: +0% vs S&P +3%COFS 2022-05-17: +1% vs S&P +5%CCNE 2022-04-25: -4% vs S&P -7%GOGO 2025-11-20: -34% vs S&P +5%KTTA 2022-08-31: -12% vs S&P +0%CVLG 2020-11-03: -5% vs S&P +12%IMVT 2025-01-15: -37% vs S&P -9%RHP 2026-02-27: +19% vs S&P +10%KMX 2026-06-26: +7% vs S&P +6%OVLY 2021-01-27: +16% vs S&P +12%GPC 2021-08-16: +9% vs S&P +5%OLN 2025-08-07: +3% vs S&P +7%MXCT 2023-03-30: -3% vs S&P +8%GTLB 2026-01-05: -40% vs S&P -4%GABC 2025-02-27: -2% vs S&P +1%SMPL 2026-04-24: -23% vs S&P +4%LINE 2026-03-16: +21% vs S&P +11%DDD 2021-08-17: -6% vs S&P +6%BGSF 2024-06-17: +3% vs S&P +3%SER 2024-09-20: -16% vs S&P +3%KMI 2024-11-06: +5% vs S&P +2%ALTG 2023-04-17: +18% vs S&P +9%LCFY 2026-04-07: -32% vs S&P +14%MCFT 2024-06-25: -6% vs S&P +5%FSP 2021-02-22: +15% vs S&P +8%ADX 2022-07-26: -3% vs S&P -3%JXN 2022-05-17: -1% vs S&P +5%RXST 2021-11-18: +7% vs S&P -5%GF 2020-08-13: +2% vs S&P +6%OTLK 2024-03-29: -28% vs S&P +5%MGPI 2020-11-09: +60% vs S&P +10%PINE 2020-05-15: +27% vs S&P +18%CTOS 2021-04-05: +4% vs S&P +7%ASB 2020-08-05: +10% vs S&P +2%FIS 2024-07-16: +15% vs S&P +4%ASPU 2021-07-16: -6% vs S&P +3%PNBK 2020-09-01: +16% vs S&P +3%FCF 2025-05-14: +6% vs S&P +10%FA 2026-03-03: +44% vs S&P +12%JMSB 2025-04-29: +18% vs S&P +15%GOSS 2020-06-23: -2% vs S&P +5%CASY 2026-06-29: -23% vs S&P +4%BKGM 2021-09-30: -6% vs S&P +12%CLH 2025-03-11: +17% vs S&P +8%HBB 2021-05-12: -27% vs S&P +10%FNWB 2022-05-06: -7% vs S&P +1%CVX 2020-11-10: +12% vs S&P +11%ET 2022-07-18: +16% vs S&P -6%BIRD 2022-03-15: -15% vs S&P -12%GLP 2024-09-24: +7% vs S&P +4%ABR 2024-06-12: +2% vs S&P +2%BDC 2022-06-21: +31% vs S&P +4%SER 2024-05-31: -15% vs S&P +6%ALZN 2021-12-02: -41% vs S&P -4%LEGH 2024-03-27: +7% vs S&P +4%ADC 2026-01-12: +11% vs S&P -2%ARDC 2021-09-17: -5% vs S&P +6%CIM 2025-03-13: +7% vs S&P +9%DT 2022-07-14: -3% vs S&P -5%KEY 2020-04-22: +21% vs S&P +17%GAM 2026-02-04: +5% vs S&P +6%EMPD 2026-02-04: +15% vs S&P +6%GRBK 2022-08-29: -3% vs S&P +0%AUPH 2026-06-02: +5% vs S&P +1%CAKE 2020-03-09: -3% vs S&P +17%NHC 2026-06-02: +18% vs S&P +1%OCUL 2023-12-18: +158% vs S&P +8%FNRN 2021-08-10: -6% vs S&P +6%ECAT 2026-07-15: -7% vs S&P +3%HPK 2023-12-29: +11% vs S&P +10%HBCP 2022-02-03: -8% vs S&P -4%BCML 2022-09-07: +1% vs S&P -1%MNSB 2023-02-07: -30% vs S&P -0%CRSR 2022-05-13: +10% vs S&P +5%GUG 2025-05-08: +4% vs S&P +12%AIRS 2025-06-11: +21% vs S&P +8%AVPT 2021-09-09: -30% vs S&P +5%BWB 2023-08-29: +0% vs S&P +2%JOF 2025-09-19: +3% vs S&P +2%SMPL 2025-07-23: -22% vs S&P +6%LPX 2025-11-12: +24% vs S&P +2%HQL 2020-03-17: +34% vs S&P +22%RILY 2022-12-15: -24% vs S&P +0%NMZ 2023-08-10: -10% vs S&P -2%BFST 2022-08-05: -0% vs S&P -10%GLBZ 2024-12-02: -17% vs S&P -1%GME 2025-07-01: +15% vs S&P +8%ANAB 2024-08-16: -41% vs S&P +7%CVM 2025-07-29: +26% vs S&P +8%NCMI 2020-04-15: +21% vs S&P +15%RSF 2025-05-29: +2% vs S&P +10%FMAO 2023-08-22: +5% vs S&P +4%QTTB 2026-06-01: +29% vs S&P +2%DIS 2025-12-15: -10% vs S&P -2%MAYS 2023-12-22: +4% vs S&P +11%BHVN 2026-03-09: +6% vs S&P +9%APPN 2022-03-09: -10% vs S&P -2%SBFG 2023-05-16: +11% vs S&P +10%MKL 2021-05-07: +2% vs S&P +5%ANIX 2020-01-21: -46% vs S&P -14%MERC 2020-02-19: -27% vs S&P -13%NTLA 2025-08-22: -24% vs S&P +1%KFY 2020-09-28: +54% vs S&P +11%UPXI 2023-07-07: -23% vs S&P -3%FLYW 2025-03-03: -0% vs S&P +1%LQDA 2026-05-20: +20% vs S&P +4%DT 2022-03-10: +7% vs S&P -3%SOPH 2026-06-05: +66% vs S&P +5%ALLE 2023-07-28: -15% vs S&P -9%ASAN 2025-07-25: -2% vs S&P +6%DUK 2020-08-14: +16% vs S&P +5%FEAM 2025-08-27: +6% vs S&P +5%FBNC 2021-09-20: +12% vs S&P +6%IOR 2025-05-05: +3% vs S&P +11%RRGB 2023-06-06: -17% vs S&P +6%CSBB 2023-05-26: +2% vs S&P +4%BOTJ 2022-05-09: -0% vs S&P +4%LOB 2020-03-13: +27% vs S&P +12%DSGR 2023-09-07: -1% vs S&P +3%BRBS 2022-09-16: -6% vs S&P +1%PBF 2020-03-19: +65% vs S&P +30%GRPN 2022-09-01: -19% vs S&P +3%ES 2020-03-12: +5% vs S&P +29%DGICA 2024-09-16: +8% vs S&P +8%KKR 2022-02-25: -10% vs S&P -7%HFFG 2025-08-13: -35% vs S&P +6%CLBK 2022-11-01: -5% vs S&P +5%OEC 2025-03-13: -6% vs S&P +9%MRBK 2025-05-12: +3% vs S&P +10%EDSA 2026-03-06: +9% vs S&P +13%SMID 2020-06-09: +14% vs S&P +7%EIX 2022-06-16: +16% vs S&P +8%AUPH 2024-12-09: -11% vs S&P -4%IMVT 2022-10-07: +106% vs S&P +5%NEPH 2021-08-19: -0% vs S&P +7%QNST 2023-09-20: +47% vs S&P +9%RGTI 2022-03-04: +10% vs S&P -3%AMN 2022-03-14: +5% vs S&P -6%CIX 2025-03-12: +7% vs S&P +8%RICK 2021-09-10: -7% vs S&P +5%RILY 2022-12-30: -15% vs S&P +6%GLBZ 2025-03-07: -3% vs S&P +3%CCNE 2020-12-22: +18% vs S&P +7%LIND 2025-05-22: +37% vs S&P +10%FKYS 2021-11-19: +1% vs S&P -6%FNLC 2026-05-01: +22% vs S&P +3%SENEA 2021-06-30: -6% vs S&P +2%AMRN 2021-12-16: -9% vs S&P -6%FAST 2021-09-14: +21% vs S&P +5%CRESY 2026-05-21: -2% vs S&P +4%CORZ 2026-03-10: +76% vs S&P +9%FUBO 2020-09-28: +382% vs S&P +11%NWFL 2021-08-20: +10% vs S&P +6%APD 2021-11-09: -19% vs S&P -4%ET 2023-08-23: +8% vs S&P +3%EPD 2022-05-12: +4% vs S&P +8%FXNC 2024-07-05: +15% vs S&P +3%OXY 2024-06-17: -15% vs S&P +3%ATEX 2021-03-02: +14% vs S&P +9%HAFC 2024-02-01: -3% vs S&P +3%MTDR 2020-08-19: -9% vs S&P +7%GRF 2024-09-10: +3% vs S&P +11%BOC 2025-12-30: -2% vs S&P -8%DLHC 2026-05-28: -21% vs S&P +2%INTC 2021-11-01: -3% vs S&P -4%APPS 2020-03-17: +132% vs S&P +22%HGTY 2025-09-08: +4% vs S&P +6%QNRX 2024-09-05: +2% vs S&P +11%OFIX 2020-03-18: +55% vs S&P +31%RGEN 2025-03-18: -13% vs S&P +8%PSEC 2023-12-08: -3% vs S&P +12%PCB 2022-02-02: -6% vs S&P -9%ABCB 2023-05-15: +46% vs S&P +8%CORT 2021-06-15: -5% vs S&P +6%KNOP 2026-06-16: +10% vs S&P +2%PFLEX 2024-01-26: +2% vs S&P +4%KRRO 2024-04-24: -25% vs S&P +10%ELMD 2024-03-05: -3% vs S&P +4%BRT 2025-10-21: +2% vs S&P +3%ACIW 2020-03-18: +31% vs S&P +31%LFT 2021-03-12: +19% vs S&P +8%NREF 2021-03-22: +13% vs S&P +6%CRK 2020-05-14: +39% vs S&P +19%S 2021-12-14: -36% vs S&P -10%ISD 2023-08-14: -4% vs S&P -1%INSG 2021-11-24: -34% vs S&P -8%ABCB 2021-07-27: +16% vs S&P +4%ASYS 2025-03-12: -19% vs S&P +8%FMC 2024-03-05: -0% vs S&P +4%GSBD 2020-12-03: +1% vs S&P +4%PROV 2020-03-19: -13% vs S&P +30%RYM 2025-09-03: -47% vs S&P +6%EVF 2020-06-09: +8% vs S&P +7%MXCT 2024-06-10: -24% vs S&P +1%PINE 2023-04-28: +7% vs S&P +9%AMCR 2020-03-18: +62% vs S&P +31%ASPN 2023-09-07: +84% vs S&P +3%AX 2020-03-13: +12% vs S&P +12%KYN 2025-11-24: +18% vs S&P +3%DCOM 2024-11-14: -8% vs S&P +2%CCNE 2024-07-23: -7% vs S&P +6%RMBI 2020-05-04: +8% vs S&P +16%IFF 2025-12-12: +11% vs S&P -2%FFIN 2026-03-09: +8% vs S&P +9%BCSF 2025-03-17: -7% vs S&P +6%APLE 2023-05-09: -0% vs S&P +10%JOE 2021-05-13: +11% vs S&P +9%FFBC 2023-03-20: +3% vs S&P +12%JOF 2024-12-11: +7% vs S&P -8%ACET 2021-12-13: -13% vs S&P -10%PDO 2023-01-10: -5% vs S&P +5%FRBBX 2024-02-02: +3% vs S&P +2%NKE 2023-10-03: +15% vs S&P +13%NVOS 2022-04-21: -11% vs S&P -9%MTW 2024-11-04: +16% vs S&P +6%COIN 2022-05-26: +2% vs S&P +2%NRDY 2024-03-19: -43% vs S&P +6%PIII 2022-01-31: +14% vs S&P -8%CDLX 2020-04-03: +127% vs S&P +26%PAGP 2020-02-27: -22% vs S&P +3%RMBI 2026-06-01: +13% vs S&P +2%CDZI 2023-09-21: -10% vs S&P +9%LGIQ 2021-04-09: -68% vs S&P +5%LOVE 2026-04-20: +4% vs S&P +5%CIVB 2022-05-06: +3% vs S&P +1%MCD 2025-02-14: +3% vs S&P -3%BHRB 2025-06-02: +14% vs S&P +9%PSTL 2024-06-27: +14% vs S&P +5%HOMB 2020-03-12: +29% vs S&P +29%NRIM 2020-06-12: +21% vs S&P +10%JBGS 2024-03-04: -16% vs S&P +3%CCIF 2023-12-21: +4% vs S&P +10%AMCR 2025-08-21: -1% vs S&P +5%RGEN 2023-05-08: +10% vs S&P +9%CBRL 2020-03-30: +36% vs S&P +15%BWFG 2024-07-31: +3% vs S&P +6%BMEZ 2023-11-06: +15% vs S&P +14%DUOL 2022-12-28: +109% vs S&P +5%GO 2024-03-26: -21% vs S&P +5%QRHC 2022-06-27: +79% vs S&P -5%MOH 2026-02-12: +52% vs S&P +9%FF 2021-11-02: +5% vs S&P -2%BELFB 2021-08-11: -3% vs S&P +6%AGL 2023-11-30: -40% vs S&P +11%HHS 2023-12-05: +5% vs S&P +13%NPO 2020-03-10: +9% vs S&P +13%ECAT 2023-10-23: +17% vs S&P +15%FLNC 2024-12-26: -67% vs S&P -5%DCI 2023-04-12: -1% vs S&P +9%SLVM 2023-03-13: -7% vs S&P +12%KELYA 2022-08-16: -8% vs S&P -8%LARK 2023-03-14: -2% vs S&P +11%MUR 2025-03-05: -7% vs S&P +3%MEC 2024-03-19: +28% vs S&P +6%BSTZ 2020-12-23: -9% vs S&P +6%OBDC 2025-05-28: -0% vs S&P +10%FBNC 2023-09-29: +35% vs S&P +12%CHMG 2022-06-16: +2% vs S&P +8%CPSS 2022-07-05: -30% vs S&P -4%CAC 2021-02-08: +19% vs S&P +8%CMT 2020-12-14: -7% vs S&P +9%RVPH 2022-06-30: +57% vs S&P -1%GDL 2021-02-18: +1% vs S&P +6%PRLD 2022-12-21: +22% vs S&P +4%NNBR 2021-06-17: -26% vs S&P +6%HGBL 2020-08-11: -42% vs S&P +7%CODA 2023-10-10: +1% vs S&P +10%BHB 2024-05-30: +25% vs S&P +7%INN 2023-03-20: -1% vs S&P +12%RPRX 2023-06-28: -9% vs S&P -2%AXSM 2025-09-09: +17% vs S&P +5%OHI 2021-11-17: -1% vs S&P -4%EHC 2020-03-13: +5% vs S&P +12%BWIN 2026-03-04: -12% vs S&P +11%BHC 2025-08-14: -8% vs S&P +6%BX 2026-05-13: +24% vs S&P +4%MXF 2025-12-02: +16% vs S&P +1%ALKS 2020-02-25: -15% vs S&P -5%HGV 2022-03-08: +3% vs S&P -1%KRP 2021-01-25: +17% vs S&P +9%NWL 2021-08-04: -3% vs S&P +6%CLMT 2025-03-05: +2% vs S&P +3%PFSI 2022-02-15: -25% vs S&P -10%NEN 2022-09-22: -9% vs S&P +4%BANX 2020-03-09: -8% vs S&P +17%CRMD 2020-05-18: +5% vs S&P +15%CORFX 2024-12-20: +1% vs S&P -4%LMB 2024-09-13: +31% vs S&P +8%MBX 2025-09-30: +78% vs S&P +4%GSBD 2025-11-14: +1% vs S&P +2%LOB 2022-08-29: -10% vs S&P +0%ICUI 2025-08-27: +20% vs S&P +5%BBCP 2020-03-25: +11% vs S&P +27%IONQ 2025-03-12: +82% vs S&P +8%PVH 2025-06-12: +27% vs S&P +8%FNWB 2021-11-04: +28% vs S&P -2%NMCO 2026-02-19: +1% vs S&P +9%ANGO 2024-10-08: +58% vs S&P +4%MYE 2025-03-13: +18% vs S&P +9%AWF 2024-01-05: +6% vs S&P +10%CCI 2021-02-11: +11% vs S&P +4%LIQT 2021-04-27: -26% vs S&P +6%LGND 2023-09-25: +21% vs S&P +10%BYRN 2023-10-19: +42% vs S&P +11%AAT 2023-03-15: +6% vs S&P +13%PKBK 2020-03-10: -6% vs S&P +13%FRST 2023-05-17: +22% vs S&P +7%AKAM 2025-02-27: -2% vs S&P +1%AIT 2020-05-04: +32% vs S&P +16%RRBI 2026-02-04: -1% vs S&P +6%CARS 2021-03-01: +3% vs S&P +8%PHIN 2025-05-01: +28% vs S&P +14%AUID 2024-04-25: +16% vs S&P +8%NXDT 2022-10-05: -11% vs S&P +1%BDSX 2023-08-23: -24% vs S&P +3%MYE 2021-08-20: -9% vs S&P +6%EMYB 2023-08-25: -7% vs S&P +4%RMT 2020-01-09: -30% vs S&P -16%NTWK 2022-12-05: -10% vs S&P +2%OEC 2023-03-15: +3% vs S&P +13%GAM 2025-12-10: +2% vs S&P -1%MSCI 2025-12-09: +5% vs S&P -0%NBTB 2023-05-04: +28% vs S&P +12%BKTI 2020-06-15: -3% vs S&P +9%EVFM 2020-11-18: +82% vs S&P +11%MSBI 2025-12-04: +15% vs S&P +0%ANVS 2021-08-23: -31% vs S&P +5%NWFL 2024-09-11: +14% vs S&P +9%RRBI 2021-11-05: -3% vs S&P -4%WSBC 2022-09-15: +5% vs S&P +3%MPAA 2021-11-30: +1% vs S&P -4%LCRDX 2021-07-19: +4% vs S&P +5%LOOP 2022-06-02: -8% vs S&P -5%PCYO 2020-07-28: -3% vs S&P +6%DRI 2022-03-30: -12% vs S&P -17%HFFG 2023-08-28: -1% vs S&P +3%PDO 2022-03-24: -15% vs S&P -17%CINF 2020-03-16: -22% vs S&P +28%NRIM 2021-08-25: +13% vs S&P +5%NFE 2025-03-13: -62% vs S&P +9%PRPL 2022-04-04: -53% vs S&P -16%PML 2024-01-26: +1% vs S&P +4%GABC 2021-08-18: +13% vs S&P +7%OWL 2021-11-23: -20% vs S&P -7%HROW 2023-11-16: +34% vs S&P +11%CRF 2021-02-25: -9% vs S&P +10%RNAZ 2023-06-22: -74% vs S&P +1%BSTZ 2024-01-24: +4% vs S&P +4%KO 2020-02-07: -24% vs S&P -13%HYFM 2024-08-30: +89% vs S&P +7%CRT 2026-05-22: -0% vs S&P +3%AIG 2024-11-26: +4% vs S&P -0%FRAF 2025-03-07: -1% vs S&P +3%GEVO 2022-03-28: -45% vs S&P -14%MPB 2021-12-17: -14% vs S&P -4%LFT 2026-01-08: -6% vs S&P -2%ALZN 2022-01-03: -42% vs S&P -5%ANVS 2025-11-25: -50% vs S&P +1%APPS 2023-05-31: -1% vs S&P +8%NKSH 2020-10-29: +22% vs S&P +14%GSBD 2020-03-25: +40% vs S&P +27%AMST 2021-06-11: -38% vs S&P +6%RYAN 2022-11-25: +10% vs S&P +0%OSCR 2026-04-07: +142% vs S&P +14%ECBK 2025-12-09: +2% vs S&P -0%BMNR 2026-04-20: -30% vs S&P +5%ATLO 2022-08-26: +5% vs S&P -0%GRBK 2024-11-15: -13% vs S&P +4%BHVN 2024-07-19: +44% vs S&P +6%PSTL 2020-07-17: +12% vs S&P +8%EPSN 2024-03-28: +1% vs S&P +5%REYN 2025-02-11: -4% vs S&P -3%ECAT 2023-06-28: -4% vs S&P -2%KLAC 2021-05-12: +20% vs S&P +10%ADSK 2025-03-24: +10% vs S&P +4%NVA 2026-07-17: -18% vs S&P +4%CMTG 2025-03-14: -23% vs S&P +8%CMCO 2024-05-31: -14% vs S&P +6%GRBK 2021-03-25: +4% vs S&P +9%GLIBK 2025-11-18: +11% vs S&P +4%RRBI 2025-02-06: -8% vs S&P -7%RVT 2020-03-25: +35% vs S&P +27%FKYS 2020-06-29: -0% vs S&P +8%KTB 2021-08-24: +10% vs S&P +5%PKOH 2025-11-13: +37% vs S&P +3%ARCC 2020-06-15: -3% vs S&P +9%BCAT 2023-02-02: +1% vs S&P -2%ACTG 2025-08-13: +8% vs S&P +6%BSM 2026-05-14: +7% vs S&P +4%RKT 2022-08-12: -32% vs S&P -7%EPD 2020-08-26: +19% vs S&P +5%NPCT 2024-04-05: +9% vs S&P +7%NEWT 2023-06-16: +2% vs S&P +2%PDO 2022-01-28: -11% vs S&P -3%AXS 2024-02-07: +18% vs S&P +4%BATRA 2023-03-14: +25% vs S&P +11%MDRR 2022-07-27: -5% vs S&P -4%FTCI 2024-06-18: -2% vs S&P +3%NECB 2021-09-14: +4% vs S&P +5%MRVL 2024-06-24: +9% vs S&P +5%FUNC 2021-12-23: +22% vs S&P -5%BY 2023-02-13: -31% vs S&P +0%MPB 2023-11-06: +7% vs S&P +14%AMH 2021-05-12: +14% vs S&P +10%DGICA 2023-09-08: +1% vs S&P +3%PRU 2020-08-13: +7% vs S&P +6%ET 2023-11-15: +7% vs S&P +10%ALTG 2022-02-16: -14% vs S&P -8%NVG 2024-11-07: +2% vs S&P +2%BIRD 2023-05-22: +14% vs S&P +5%CPK 2022-11-30: +7% vs S&P -2%PKBK 2023-08-10: -4% vs S&P -2%QNBC 2024-04-02: -0% vs S&P +5%FFBC 2025-10-01: +1% vs S&P +3%HXL 2020-03-12: -9% vs S&P +29%ADIL 2021-12-01: -23% vs S&P -4%BY 2023-02-21: -26% vs S&P +5%RNAC 2025-04-11: +27% vs S&P +18%FCF 2023-03-20: +11% vs S&P +12%SHEN 2025-09-08: -16% vs S&P +6%GAM 2026-04-08: +6% vs S&P +11%FITB 2020-03-16: +53% vs S&P +28%ETO 2023-08-16: -1% vs S&P +2%GLQ 2023-08-09: -7% vs S&P -2%ARCT 2025-08-20: -62% vs S&P +4%GBCI 2023-05-11: +24% vs S&P +9%COE 2026-05-19: -30% vs S&P +6%ASMB 2024-01-19: +29% vs S&P +4%BSET 2023-05-01: +20% vs S&P +10%QCRH 2023-08-01: -8% vs S&P -9%FOR 2025-02-18: -16% vs S&P -2%ROP 2025-11-12: -23% vs S&P +2%FCPT 2022-03-29: +1% vs S&P -15%CODI 2024-05-29: +1% vs S&P +7%SAIC 2021-12-14: +6% vs S&P -10%DYN 2025-07-15: +69% vs S&P +7%ALTI 2023-01-23: -17% vs S&P +3%JEF 2026-06-29: -2% vs S&P +4%OPAL 2022-08-31: -16% vs S&P +0%PYPL 2023-02-17: -18% vs S&P +3%IMMR 2022-09-15: +38% vs S&P +3%ACHR 2021-11-29: -48% vs S&P -5%MBIO 2020-06-15: +6% vs S&P +9%ADBE 2025-03-21: -2% vs S&P +6%MTDR 2025-08-21: -11% vs S&P +5%CNOB 2026-06-16: -2% vs S&P +2%NXG 2024-09-10: +27% vs S&P +11%AUB 2024-03-11: -8% vs S&P +5%MG 2025-03-20: -25% vs S&P +6%GLAD 2020-03-13: +0% vs S&P +12%GLO 2020-08-27: +9% vs S&P +5%SBRA 2021-05-17: -1% vs S&P +8%CET 2026-06-30: +5% vs S&P +3%SAIC 2024-04-15: -3% vs S&P +11%NZF 2025-08-21: +9% vs S&P +5%GDRX 2021-05-26: +2% vs S&P +7%FULT 2025-04-29: +11% vs S&P +15%SFBC 2023-09-28: +4% vs S&P +12%RYN 2020-06-15: +14% vs S&P +9%BUSE 2024-02-06: +4% vs S&P +5%SDHC 2026-05-22: +7% vs S&P +3%OVLY 2021-12-01: +10% vs S&P -4%CABO 2022-09-07: -34% vs S&P -1%OBIO 2026-05-19: +18% vs S&P +6%EBMT 2023-05-03: +7% vs S&P +12%NMFC 2020-06-01: +8% vs S&P +15%FIBK 2020-06-09: -3% vs S&P +7%BMEZ 2024-03-06: -5% vs S&P +4%RC 2021-12-02: -0% vs S&P -4%CSBB 2024-06-05: -1% vs S&P +4%KMI 2020-03-06: -15% vs S&P +5%SAIC 2020-04-07: +4% vs S&P +20%APPF 2021-10-22: -18% vs S&P -1%EIG 2025-05-07: -15% vs S&P +12%FNWD 2025-02-14: +14% vs S&P -3%CAPL 2020-03-17: +21% vs S&P +22%CTKB 2022-03-02: -26% vs S&P -5%OPAD 2021-11-17: -50% vs S&P -4%PCG 2025-11-05: -5% vs S&P +2%SAIA 2024-08-05: +27% vs S&P +11%MSGE 2024-08-22: -13% vs S&P +6%RMBI 2024-02-09: +8% vs S&P +4%FKYS 2026-06-23: +7% vs S&P +6%MXF 2026-02-02: +1% vs S&P +4%ACTG 2020-09-08: -3% vs S&P +11%ALT 2020-05-28: +125% vs S&P +15%FET 2023-05-15: +11% vs S&P +8%LEXX 2022-10-18: +29% vs S&P +8%NMFC 2024-08-07: -8% vs S&P +12%PKBK 2024-04-26: +21% vs S&P +6%AKTX 2025-06-24: -29% vs S&P +10%MEGI 2022-02-28: +5% vs S&P -5%
Up to 500 cases shown, picked at random. Results beyond ±50% sit on the edge. Hover a dot for the stock and date.

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Which setups beat the coin flip?

Share of past cases that beat the S&P 500 over 90 days. Bars to the right of the line did better than 50/50. Hover a row for details.

Setup30%50% = coin flip70%
3+ insiders buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months278 cases 50%
3+ insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months531 cases 49%
2 insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months416 cases 49%
2 insiders buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months408 cases 47%
1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 0–20% in 3 months3,433 cases 47%
1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months1,766 cases 47%
3+ insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months282 cases 46%
1 insider buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months892 cases 46%

Tap a row to try it in the explorer above.

Year by year

Share of that year's insider buys that beat the S&P 500 over the next 90 days. The market's mood matters as much as the insiders.

Today's setups

Stocks with insider buying in the last 30 days, and how past setups like each did.

StockSetupBeat the marketPast casesMedian vs. S&P
STCSTEWART INFORMATION SERVICES CORP 3+ insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 52% 221 +3.2%
CATCaterpillar Inc. 1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 52% 268 +1.3%
XYLXylem Inc. 1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 52% 268 +1.3%
ATECAlphatec Holdings, Inc. 1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 52% 268 +1.3%
JBLUJETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP 1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 52% 268 +1.3%
CNXUConexeu Sciences Inc. 1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 52% 268 +1.3%
ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc. 2 insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 52% 110 +1.1%
THRMGentherm Inc 2 insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 52% 110 +1.1%
INBXInhibrx Biosciences, Inc. 1 insider buying · incl. CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 0–20% in 3 months 50% 165 +0.5%
TIPTTIPTREE INC. 1 insider buying · incl. CEO or CFO · $250K–$1M · stock down 0–20% in 3 months 50% 165 +0.5%

Every setup as a table (download CSV)

Grouped by how many insiders bought, whether the CEO or CFO was one of them, and how the stock had moved in the 3 months before. Only groups with 25+ cases are shown.

SetupCasesBeat the S&P 500Median vs. S&PAverage vs. S&PMedian moveWorst
3+ insiders buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 278 50% -0.2% +3.5% +12.8% -81.5%
3+ insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 531 49% -0.7% +2.7% +7.4% -64.2%
2 insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months 416 49% -0.2% +2.1% +4.2% -97.0%
2 insiders buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 408 47% -1.7% +0.1% +6.3% -89.7%
1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 0–20% in 3 months 3,433 47% -1.0% +1.2% +2.9% -96.9%
1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 1,766 47% -1.8% +0.2% +5.5% -100.0%
3+ insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months 282 46% -1.9% +0.3% +2.1% -87.2%
1 insider buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months 892 46% -1.7% +0.5% +1.9% -99.8%
1 insider buying · no CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months 4,099 46% -1.4% +0.6% +2.5% -79.3%
1 insider buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock down 0–20% in 3 months 913 45% -1.8% -0.5% +2.3% -86.6%
3+ insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock down 0–20% in 3 months 438 45% -2.9% -1.4% +2.0% -84.4%
2 insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 373 45% -2.7% +1.0% +4.0% -67.5%
2 insiders buying · no CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months 736 44% -1.6% +0.9% +2.9% -65.6%
2 insiders buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 0–20% in 3 months 679 44% -2.2% -2.3% +2.9% -85.9%
3+ insiders buying · no CEO or CFO · stock up over 3 months 281 44% -2.2% +1.4% +2.6% -69.4%
1 insider buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock down 20%+ in 3 months 644 43% -4.0% -0.9% +1.0% -93.0%
2 insiders buying · incl. CEO or CFO · stock down 0–20% in 3 months 434 43% -2.3% -1.3% +2.6% -86.5%
3+ insiders buying · no CEO or CFO · stock down 0–20% in 3 months 296 40% -2.8% -1.5% +3.5% -64.7%

How Setup Odds works, and its limits
  1. History. Every open-market purchase (Form 4 code P, $10,000 or more) in U.S. stocks since 2020, from the SEC's quarterly insider transaction data.
  2. Buy events. Purchases in the same stock within 14 days count as one event. Each gets four traits: how many insiders bought, whether the CEO or CFO did, the dollar size, and the stock's move over the prior 3 months.
  3. Results. The stock's price change over the 90 days after the last filing became public, next to the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days.
  4. Matching. For a new event we find past events with the same traits. If fewer than 25 match, we drop the least important trait (size, then the prior move) until there are enough.

Limits: this is history, not a prediction. Stocks under $3 are left out, and closed-end funds don't get odds. Companies that were later delisted often have no price data and drop out, which flatters the results somewhat. Returns are price only, before costs, taxes and dividends. Updated about once a month; last Oct 19, 2026.

Educational research from public SEC filings and market prices. Not investment advice.